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Forming realistic population distributions for flood frequency assessments

Tuesday, July 26, 2022 - 11:00 to 12:00
Vincenzo Coia, Assistant Professor of Teaching, UBC Department of Statistics
Statistics Seminar
Zoom / ESB 4192

To join via Zoom: To join this seminar, please register here.

Title: Forming realistic population distributions for flood frequency assessments

Abstract: Forming a population distribution in the frequentist setting typically amounts to choosing a pre-defined family like Gaussian or Exponential, but this may not always be realistic. One such situation is the formation of distributions for the annual maximum river flow in a changing climate when the river is driven by more than one process (eg., snowmelt and rainfall). I will demonstrate this analysis for the Coldwater River in British Columbia, an analysis that has recently been submitted to the Fraser Basin Council following the devastating floods in British Columbia in November 2021. I will also demonstrate how the distplyr R package makes this type of analysis (forming realistic probability distributions) simpler by providing a grammar for manipulating probability distributions.